Afrobarometer, a prominent political research organization, has come under fire following its recent snap survey results which reportedly indicated a willingness among voters in specific constituencies to support the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Critics have raised questions about the methodology employed in selecting survey areas, alleging that the sampling is tailored to favor the DPP amid a backdrop of historical electoral performance that suggests otherwise.
The survey covered several wards, including Shire Ward in Balaka Central East, Chimwalire Ward in Balaka South, Liviridzi Ward in Balaka West, and others in Blantyre North, Mulanje South, Chikhwawa East, and Zomba. Observers noted that these regions have shown a predominance for the DPP in prior by-elections. However, a closer look at the electoral record since 2021, which appears to show strong support for the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP), raises concerns about the accuracy and credibility of Afrobarometer’s findings.
Recent by-election results reveal a trend that contradicts the survey’s conclusions. For instance, during the 2024 by-elections held on March 26, the MCP secured overwhelming victories across several constituencies:
Kaporow Ward: MCP won with 1,662 votes against DPP’s 819.
Chilanga Ward: MCP received 1,516 votes to the DPP’s 486.
Rukuru Ward: MCP dominated with 5,858 votes compared to DPP’s 1,332.
The pattern continues in 2023, where results from the Dedza Central Constituency show MCP garnering 7,913 votes compared to a mere 403 for the DPP in November.
In August 2022, the MCP triumphed over DPP by polling 1,663 votes against DPP’s 304 votes in Chitipa Wenya; 1,591 votes against DPP’s 542 in Lupembe Ward, Karonga Central Constituency;
The Malawi Electoral Commission database indicates that during 2021 by-election, the ruling MCP outperformed the opposition DPP with significant margins including 6,742 votes against DPP’s 1,930 votes in Nkhota-kota North East Constituency; 3,619 votes against the DPP’s 149 votes in Mzimba East Constituency; 6,266 votes against the DPP’s 366 votes in Dedza Central East Constituency; 3,448 votes against the DPP’s 2,756 votes in Lalanje Ward in Mulanje Lalanje Constituency; 9,207 votes against the DPP’s 3,992 votes in Karonga North West Consntituency; 10,385 votes against the DPP’s 452 votes in Ntchisi North Constituency; 9,866 votes against DPP’s 8,081 votes in Nsanje North Constituency; 8,230 votes against DPP’s 6,648 votes in Nsanje Central Constituency; and 8,664 votes against DPP’s 520 votes in Lilongwe Nsinja South Constituency among others.
Consequentially, Afrobarometer’s claims have been met with skepticism, especially as historical data from previous elections suggests a sustained preference for the MCP and a diminishing influence of the DPP. For example, in the 2021 by-elections for Nkhotakota North East, the MCP achieved 6,742 votes against 1,930 for the DPP—a continuing trend of the MCP’s increasing dominance.
Critics assert that the selective sampling by Afrobarometer aligns conveniently with areas where DPP performed relatively better in past elections. “The survey results appear to be an attempt to paint a more favorable picture for the DPP, neglecting the broader electoral context that clearly points to MCP’s popularity,” stated a political analyst who wished to remain anonymous.
In its defense, Afrobarometer claims to focus on gathering public sentiment through scientifically-backed methods; however, the recent pushback highlights the need for transparency in their methodologies and the possible implications of their findings on the political landscape.
There have been prior reports that DPP was in discussions with Afrobarometer local partners to produce survey report that aligns with DPP’s partisan interests.
As debates over the authenticity of Afrobarometer’s survey results continue, Malawians are left questioning the reliability of political data and the dynamics of their electoral sentiments.
