New figures from the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) indicate that the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is gaining strong momentum in this year’s presidential race.
Voter turnout is showing clear patterns across the country. In Mangochi, turnout is just below the halfway mark at 49.68%, suggesting a more unpredictable outcome there.
However, in key population centers, the numbers strongly favor MCP.
Lilongwe Rural, a traditional MCP stronghold, has already recorded a turnout of 62%, while Mzimba in the Northern Region, another historic support base for the party, stands at 53%.
In the 2019 election, MCP’s Lazarus Chakwera secured high margins in both districts, and this year analysts say support is likely to be even stronger, boosted by the selection of Vitumbiko Mumba as Chakwera’s running mate.
In contrast, the Southern Region has lower overall turnout and a crowded field, with eight presidential candidates competing, including four from the Lomwe Belt—Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika, Dalitso Kabambe, Kondwani Nankhumwa, and Michael Usi.
This vote division is expected to weaken any one candidate’s dominance, potentially giving MCP an advantage at the national level.
Overall, the statistics suggest that MCP’s strong performance in its traditional northern and central strongholds, combined with a divided southern vote, positions the party well for a likely victory.
Malawi is heading into a tense and historic finale, with the outcome shaped largely by turnout patterns and regional loyalties.
