The DPP convention in Blantyre is a well-organized event, with the venue beautifully decorated. The highlight of the convention will undoubtedly remain the speech delivered by the party’s leader, Peter Mutharika.
His address was far from his usual boring speeches; he captivated the audience with engaging remarks, relevant jokes, and an overall positive vibe that excited the delegates and guests. I sincerely congratulate him and the DPP for that.
However, beyond the well-managed event and Mutharika’s entertaining speech, the convention exposed the current sad and tattered state of the DPP.
Those of us that have closely monitored the lifecycle of DPP since its formation through 2014 and 2019, feel sorry that a party that was once a formidable force in Malawian politics stands on the verge of collapse. It is stripped of the political material which made it mighty and unbeatable.
Faces of passionate brilliant youths, great men and women, charismatic and powerful MPs who once made the DPP a force to be reckoned with, could not be traced at the convention. The convention has reminded some of us, that many people who were instrumental in shaping the party’s success have left or were removed, leaving DPP looking like a naked kid trying to act unashamed and brave in front of an irritated multitude.
The convention theme, “Return to Proven Leadership: A Call to All Malawians in Restoring Hope, Rebuilding the Economy, and Healing the Fractured Unity of Our Country,” is indeed catchy and relevant for a campaign message for this season. However, it reveals the party’s detachment from reality and its failure to introspect.
The DPP cannot realistically talk about restoring hope for Malawians and rebuilding the economy when the party itself is in dire need of hope and rebuilding. The message seems misplaced, as the DPP must first address its own internal issues before it can credibly promise to heal the nation. The unity that the party seeks to restore in the country seems more necessary within the party itself, where irreconcilable fractures have been evident since 2020 and are still there masked behind fake smiles that pretend to support APMs candidacy for lack of alternatives.
And on the “return to proven leadership” aspect of the theme, I am hesitant to simply agree with that. Mutharika’s greatest test is not about how the economy and prices of goods were managed between 2014 and 2019 but how he has led the fallen DPP.
You see, most of the economic indicators that spoke of a stable economy had nothing to do with Mutharika because they were monitory policy indicators not fiscal. The indicators included inflation rate, interest rates, forex reserves and forex exchange rate and the like. These indicators are monitory policy-based managed by the Reserve Bank not the central government which manages the fiscal. This means that it was largely the competent brains at the Reserve Bank that were doing a good job and have the “proven leadership” not president Mutharika, per se. Therefore, once again, the theme of the DPP convention has the potential to mislead Malawians into celebrating the wrong people.
Lastly, the idea of forming an electoral alliance with AFORD, UDF, and UTM is an interesting and potentially appealing strategy. However, I am very skeptical about it. Listen to me very carefully.
The UDF got only around 200,000 votes nationally in 2019, and AFORD has no quantifiable support for now, despite Enoch Chihana’s commendable efforts to revive and rebrand the party. I, nonetheless, estimate that so far, AFORD has around 30,000 votes. UTM, which garnered around 1 million votes in 2019, seems like the most significant potential partner in the looming DPP alliance.
However, it’s important to note that UTM votes were largely due to Saulos Chilima’s appeal at that material time. With Chilima now out of the picture, UTM’s strength has likely diminished by around 60%. I estimate that for now, UTM current support is at around 400,000 votes. Therefore, the potential alliance partners of DPP are coming with an aggregate of around 630,000 votes.
Unfortunately, DPP itself has lost considerable voters over the past four years following the leadership crisis and loss of other party leaders. In 2019, DPP had around 1.9million votes and I estimate that they have dwindled, leaving it weaker than before at around 1.3milion. These estimates give the DPP, UTM, UDF and AFORD alliance close to 1.9million votes which is just around the same where DPP was in 2019 without an alliance.
As such, while the idea of an alliance might sound promising, the reality is that the combined strength of these parties may still fall short of making a significant impact without addressing the deeper issues within the DPP itself, and of course, the leadership crisis in UTM as well.
