Lyson Sibande, a demonstrable political analyst has dismissed opposition opportunism over fuel supply hiccups, telling them that they should never expect any advantage from the scenario. Below is verbatim of what Sibande has written:
When Bingu died in April 2012 and DPP lost power, Malawi had no forex, no medicine in hospitals, and no fuel. The production industry had either scaled down or closed their plants and laid off labor. The economy had collapsed, and the political atmosphere was very tense following deadly mass protests, withdrawn multilateral foreign aid, and raptured bilateral relations with the UK and other donors.
When Joyce Banda took over power, she instantly fixed all the problems. But when elections came 24 months later, Joyce Banda lost power to the same DPP that had challenges with fuel, devaluation, and forex.
I am trying to make you understand that the economy is surprisingly a non-issue when it comes to voting in Malawi. Joyce Banda lost in 2014 not because she didn’t fix economic problems but because the People’s Party had no regional stronghold and powerful tribal base.
Bakili Muluzi messed up the economy upon taking over from Kamuzu. The 10 years between 1994 and 2004 have been called ” The Wasted Decade.” People were literally dying of starvation, inflation was high, and could not contain HIV related deaths. The country was in a mess, but Muluzi and his UDF never lost in any of the 3 elections they contested.
What you need to win elections in Malawi is to have a party with a strong regional base and a very loyal tribal affiliate. Then get some good political engineers.
Good economic performance only helps swing the undecided and un-loyal voters to push the boundaries of your share of loyal votes, as was the case in 2009 with Bingu.
So, the fuel queues and forex scarcity and inflation you see now have nothing to do with whether MCP and Chakwera will win again in September or not. You may not want to hear this and get annoyed, but that’s the truth. That’s the reality of Malawian politics.
Vuto siineyo pokuuzani chilungamo, vuto ndichulungamocho.
